Labor regains polling lead as One Nation retreats and Coalition struggles

The extraordinary volatility of Australian politics has continued, with two new national polls suggesting the Albanese Government has regained momentum after weeks of unprecedented gains by Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

The latest AFR/RedBridge Group poll places Labor back in first place on the primary vote, recording 30 per cent, ahead of One Nation on 29 per cent, the Coalition on 18 per cent, the Greens on 14 per cent, and independents and minor parties on 9 per cent. Compared with the previous survey, Labor gained two points, while both One Nation and the Coalition slipped by two points.

A separate Roy Morgan poll paints a similar picture, although with slightly different numbers. Labor rose to 28 per cent, One Nation fell sharply to 26 per cent, the Coalition improved to 21.5 per cent, the Greens recorded 13 per cent, while independents and other parties stood at 11.5 per cent. The most notable movement was One Nation’s 5.5-point decline from its previous high, although the party remains well above its historical levels of support.  

A remarkable political realignment

Only weeks ago, One Nation achieved what many considered politically unthinkable by leading national primary voting intention in several polls for the first time in the party’s history.

While the latest polling suggests some of that momentum has eased, the broader political picture remains highly unusual. The Coalition continues to struggle to regain ground despite Labor’s own challenges, leaving Australia’s traditional two-party system under sustained pressure.  

The AFR/RedBridge survey indicates Labor has narrowly reclaimed first place, but only by a single percentage point over One Nation. Meanwhile, the Coalition remains in third place on just 18 per cent in that poll.

Coalition still searching for recovery

Although Roy Morgan records a modest improvement in Coalition support to 21.5 per cent, other polling continues to show historically weak support for the Liberal-National Coalition.

Recent Newspoll results have placed the Coalition at just 17 per cent nationally—its lowest result recorded by the series—highlighting the scale of the challenge facing Opposition Leader Angus Taylor.  

The figures reinforce a political environment where dissatisfaction with both major parties continues to fuel support for minor parties and independents, even as Labor appears to have recovered from the immediate fallout surrounding its May Budget.

What it means

While Labor will welcome returning to the top of the primary vote, the results are unlikely to provide much comfort.

Primary support of 28-30 per cent remains historically low for a governing party, while One Nation’s continued strength demonstrates that anti-establishment sentiment remains a significant force in Australian politics.

For the Coalition, the latest polling presents an even greater challenge. Despite some variation between polling companies, the party remains well behind both Labor and One Nation, raising further questions about its ability to rebuild support before the next federal election.

With three major polling organisations now showing a highly fragmented electorate, Australia’s political landscape continues to undergo one of its most significant transformations in decades.