One Nation Claims Historic Victory In Farrer By-Election
By Inside Canberra
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has secured a historic breakthrough in federal politics, with candidate David Farley set to become the party’s first lower house representative to be elected after a dramatic result in the NSW seat of Farrer.
As counting continued on Saturday evening, early Australian Electoral Commission figures showed Farley dominating the primary vote with approximately 48.2 per cent, well ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe on 19.8 per cent, Nationals candidate Brad Robertson on 10.9 per cent, and Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski on 8.8 per cent. The projected two-candidate-preferred count placed One Nation ahead by approximately 63.3 per cent to 36.7 per cent.
The scale of the result represents one of the most significant electoral upsets in recent federal political history. Farrer — which covers much of south-western New South Wales including Albury, Griffith, Narrandera, Leeton, Deniliquin, Hay and Wentworth — has been continuously held by Coalition-aligned parties since 1949.
The by-election followed the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, who had held the electorate since 2001. At the 2025 federal election, Ley retained the seat with 56.19 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote against independent Michelle Milthorpe, while One Nation polled only 6.6 per cent on primary votes at that election.
The transformation in the political landscape over just twelve months has been extraordinary.
AEC data released before polling day showed approximately 9,000 completed postal votes had already been returned, more than 900 mobile votes had been cast, and around 700 temporary AEC staff were deployed across the electorate to manage the by-election count.
Farley campaigned heavily on regional dissatisfaction, cost-of-living pressures, water policy and voter frustration with the major parties. The result appears to reflect a substantial realignment of conservative regional voters away from the traditional Coalition parties.
Independent Michelle Milthorpe mounted a significant campaign and again positioned herself as a major independent challenger after her strong 2025 performance. However, the scale of the One Nation surge across rural booths and preference flows ultimately placed the party in a commanding position during the count.
The Liberal and National parties meanwhile suffered from a split conservative vote in what had historically been regarded as safe Coalition territory. The Nationals contested the seat despite its long Liberal history, contributing to a fragmented conservative primary vote while One Nation consolidated anti-establishment support.
The contest also produced an extraordinarily rare electoral scenario, with the Australian Electoral Commission conducting a notional two-candidate preferred count between One Nation and an independent candidate rather than between Labor and the Coalition.
Farrer contains approximately 124,447 enrolled voters, making it one of regional Australia’s most geographically expansive electorates.
While postal and declaration votes remain outstanding, the consistency of booth trends and the scale of the projected margin made the direction of the result increasingly clear as counting progressed on Saturday night.
For One Nation, the victory represents a watershed political moment — transforming the party from a Senate protest force into a party now capable of winning and potentially holding seats in the House of Representatives.